According to ACI World, in its biennial airport traffic bulletin 2024-2053, air travel will reach 22.3 billion air passengers by 2053, two and a half times the number expected in 2024. This forecast is based on last year’s data and projections for 2025.
Specifically, from 2024 to 2043, the global number of travelers is expected to grow at an annual rate of 3.4%, reaching 17.7 billion passengers. By 2045, this number will climb to 18.7 billion, doubling the 2024 figures.
The previous year had 9.5 billion air passengers, representing a 9% increase compared to 2023. This figure was lower than initially estimated, as forecasts had not fully accounted for the impact of the pandemic. The original projection for 2024 was 11.4 billion air passengers, a target that was ultimately not met.
However, by 2025, it is widely believed that all markets will have recovered from the effects of COVID-19 and will be on a path of stabilized growth. Global passenger traffic is expected to reach 9.9 billion, an annual growth rate of 4.8%.
Africa is projected to have 236 million air passengers in 2024, which is 107% of the 2019 level. The Asia-Pacific region is expected to see 5 billion passengers (103% of 2019); Europe is also projected to have 5 billion passengers (102% of 2019); and Latin America and the Caribbean are forecasted to reach 746 million passengers (111% of 2019).
In addition, the Middle East is anticipated to have 443 million air passengers (109% of 2019), while North America is expected to see 1 billion passengers (104% of 2019). Emerging and developing economies will likely experience higher growth rates than advanced economies, with the Middle East and Asia-Pacific leading the way at 5.2% and 5% growth rates between 2024 and 2030. This growth exceeds the global average of 4%.
However, it is essential to consider that global air passenger growth will face challenges due to ongoing geopolitical tensions. The potential reintroduction of tariffs by the United States under a second Trump administration could indirectly impact the demand for international travel. Additionally, delays in manufacturer aircraft deliveries pose risks to growth opportunities, leading to increased operating costs and affecting passenger sentiment.
Justin Erbacci, the Director General of ACI World, stated that airports, airlines, and policymakers must take bold, forward-looking actions to anticipate and address future needs.