According to a report from Swan Securities, arrivals to Mauritius have increased to 72.09% compared to 2019 levels and are predicted to reach 90% to 95% of pre-pandemic levels by 2023. Based on the data, it is estimated that the market will experience growth due to the recovery of the European market and the emergence of new markets, such as the Middle East.
In the coming year, there may be opportunities for businesses to expand their market share in the Indian Ocean region due to Sri Lanka's slow recovery. However, it's essential to be cautious as the slow recovery in Asian markets, slowing global economic activity, and labor shortage concerns may limit the number of visitors in 2023.
All relevant factors were analyzed in three distinct methods to predict the number of tourists expected to arrive in Mauritius in 2023. The first method is based on market share, given the global arrival recovery rate of 85% predicted by the World Tourism Organization. The second uses regional recovery rates for the last six months to forecast arrivals. The third is calculated on a recovery rate of 88% for the first half of 2023—a rate that should improve to reach 90% during the year's second half.
According to estimates for Mauritius’ tourism, the number of arrivals is expected to be between 1.27 million and 1.32 million, with an average of 1.29 million. This indicates a recovery rate of 93.6% compared to the number of arrivals in 2019.
Industry experts are also discussing the challenges that the industry is facing. One of these challenges is the shortage of labor, which causes a problem. In addition, there are limited opportunities to increase the number of available rooms in the industry in the coming years. In response, it is recommended that a national strategy be formulated that places more emphasis on tourism receipts rather than the number of arrivals.
