Spain is set to become a leading destination worldwide, expecting 115 million international travelers by 2040, surpassing France, according to a new report by the Braintrust Tourism Barometer.
Various factors, including the global context, economic developments, and initiatives taken by different destinations, can influence this trend, potentially leading to record numbers in visitor counts and spending.
The forecast predicts Spain will receive 93 million international travelers by 2025, reaching 100 million by 2030 and 107 million by 2035.
With these predictions, the tourism sector's contribution to the national GDP is expected to grow, exceeding 15%. This figure has already been surpassed in regions such as the Balearic and Canary Islands.
The Weight of the Traditional Source Markets Will Decrease
The predicted increase in tourists to Spain suggests that traditional source markets, such as the United Kingdom, Germany, and France, will account for less than 70% of total arrivals.
Currently, European source markets make up three-quarters of all travelers to Spain. However, the rise in visitors from the Americas (both the U.S. and other countries in the continent) and various Asian nations indicates that at least one-third of tourists will come from non-traditional markets.
Furthermore, new international travelers visiting Spain are estimated to spend between 2,000 and 3,000 euros during their holiday. An average stay of about eight days translates to an average daily expenditure of between 200 and 300 euros—almost double the amount spent before the pandemic.
By 2030, the average daily expenditure will double compared to 2017, reaching around 280 euros per day. Furthermore, between 2035 and 2040, this average daily expenditure could increase to 340 euros per day, double from 2022.
Travel Behavior Will Change
In the future, new visitors to Spain are expected to seek experiences beyond just sun and beach relaxation. There is a growing trend towards "mixed" trips, where leisure activities are combined with work, events (such as concerts and shows), cultural experiences, and gastronomic adventures while enjoying some sunshine. It is estimated that more than 25% of travelers will be motivated by these mixed experiences.
Additionally, the significance of the summer months in the overall number of arrivals is gradually decreasing. The summer months are projected to account for less than 30% of total arrivals, compared to 38% in previous years.
As different motivations for visiting Spain emerge, we can expect a diversification of travel destinations. Six autonomous communities—Andalusia, the Balearic Islands, the Canary Islands, Catalonia, the Valencian Community, and the Community of Madrid—account for over 90% of tourist arrivals. However, their share is expected to decrease in favor of other regions, gradually attracting fewer visitors.
Data suggests this shift will not happen quickly. Instead, it will unfold over the coming years, with regions such as Galicia, Asturias, the Basque Country, Navarre, Castilla y León, Castilla-La Mancha, and Extremadura gaining popularity for their tourism offer, which diverge from the traditional sun-and-beach appeal.