China, India, and the United States are expected to dominate the global travel market over the next 15 years, according to the “Travel 2040” report created in collaboration with Google and Deloitte. The report analyzes billions of search engine queries alongside 90,000 trends from recent years, revealing that by 2040, there will be 2.4 billion international travelers worldwide, representing a 60% increase from today.
As anticipated, China will lead, but India is estimated to experience the highest growth rates. The number of travelers from India is expected to increase at least fivefold in the next 15 years. The Indian travelers will be predominantly young and digital-savvy, preferring to book international flights less than 50 days in advance, compared to the average of 70 days. Initially, they will likely choose nearby destinations before venturing to more established locations, such as Europe.
The United States is expected to maintain its leading role in global travel by 2040, representing up to 40% of travelers, particularly non-European destinations. These experienced travelers seek new adventures and often gravitate toward well-known brands. 78% of them are willing to pay a premium for a reputable tourism brand, a trend that is likely to continue growing.
By 2040, the landscape of popular travel destinations will also change. Spain is projected to surpass France as the most visited country, followed closely by the emerging contender, Mexico. The Middle East will contribute to this trend, with tourism in the United Arab Emirates continuing to grow. Additionally, Saudi Arabia will become a significant player, bolstered by high-quality hospitality, streamlined visa policies, and substantial investments in tourism projects such as Neom—though Neom faces challenges with downsizing—and the upcoming Expo 2030.